Forex Research Blog | FXTechstrategy

USDCHF – Nearer Term Downtrend Remains Intact, Risk Points To .50 Fib Ret.

2012-01-30T14:16:00.000-08:00

USDCHF: Although the pair is now seen hesitating, it continues to maintain its downside bias nearer term suggesting trend continuation should follow. In such a case, the 0.9063/75 level, its Nov 30’2011 low/.50 Fib Ret (0.8558-0.9591 rally) will be targeted where a violation will extend price weakness towards its psycho level at 0.9000. We may see a breather here due to the psychological nature of this support level but if taken out, expect more declines to build up towards the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the pair will aim at the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low followed by the 0.9240 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn it lower. However, if this fails to hold as resistance, the pair could strengthen further towards the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 0.9591 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside on further weakness nearer term.

USDJPY: Susceptible, Immediate Risk Points Lower.

2012-01-30T01:40:00.001-08:00

USDJPY: The pair faces the risk of recapturing its key support at the 76.57 level as it reversed its early gains the past week and poised to weaken further in the new week. A clearance of there will turn focus to the 75.57 level, its Oct’2011 low with a break paving the way for a run at the 74.00 level and then the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, USDJPY will have to climb back above the 78.18/27 levels to end its present bear threats and then trigger its corrective recovery. This will clear the way for a run at the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside in the long term as it looks to recapture its key support.

GOLD: Bulls Dominate Price Action, Further Price Extension Envisaged.

2012-01-29T15:11:00.000-08:00

GOLD: The commodity extended its rally for a fourth week in a row on Friday as it now looks to recapture the 1,762.50 level, its Dec 02’2011 high. A clearance of here will bring further upside gains towards the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will a return to the 1,641.35 level on pullbacks. Below here will set the stage for further declines towards the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. A break of there will open the door for additional weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its nearer term corrective recovery strength with eyes on the 1,762 level.

GBPUSD: Remains Bullish Bias, Further Strength Likely To Aim At 1.5770/95 Levels

2012-01-29T10:34:00.001-08:00

GBPUSD: With a follow-through higher on the back of its previous week seen at the end of last week, GBP is now set to strength further into the new week. In such a case, the 1.5770 level, its Dec 21’2011 high will be targeted. That level is very significant to GBP’s continued recovery which was activated from the 1.5235 level. A decisive clearance of there will set the stage for further upside price extension towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high. Above here will aim at the 1.6074 level, its Nov’2011 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 1.5666 level followed by the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Further down, support stands at the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and the 1.5235 level, its Jan 2012 low. On the whole, GBP continues to correct higher suggesting further price extension towards the 1.5770 level and beyond.

EURUSD: Maintains Continuous Weekly Gains, Eyes Set On The 1.3375 Level (Weekly Technical Strategist).

2012-01-29T05:55:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: Having rallied and broken the 1.3074 level and the 1.3197 level, EUR now looks to strengthen further with eyes on the 1.3375 level, its Dec 12’12 level. On further price extension, the pair should target the 1.3484 level, its Dec 05’2011 high and possibly higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, on any pullback, the 1.3197 level will be targeted ahead of the 1.3074 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn the pair back up. However, if that level is taken out, further declines is expected towards the 1.2856/75 level, its Dec 29’2011 low/Jan 2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 1.2624 level where a loss will resume its medium term weakness and aim at the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective recovery tone as it looks to extend further bullish momentum.

USDCHF – Rolls Over, Set To Weak Further With Eyes On .50 Fib Ret (The Week Ahead)

2012-01-28T02:27:00.000-08:00

USDCHF: The pair ended the week lower for a third week in row since turning off the 0.9591 level on Jan 09’2012. With that said, USDCHF faces the risk of further declines in the new week towards the 0.9063/75 level, its Nov 30’2011 low/.50 Fib Ret (0.8558-0.9591 rally) where a violation will extend price weakness towards its psycho level at 0.9000. We may see a breather here due to the psychological nature of this support level but if taken out, expect more weakness to shape up towards the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the pair will aim at the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low followed by the 0.9240 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn it lower. However, if this fails to happen, the pair could strengthen further towards the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 0.9591 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside on further nearer term weakness.

GBPUSD: Maintains Its Bullish Momentum.

2012-01-27T09:37:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: The pair continues to strengthen but the major break that the market and traders are looking to occur is the 1.5770 level, its Dec 21’2011 high. That level is very significant to GBP’s continued recovery which was initiated from the 1.5235 level. An eventual clearance of there will set the stage for further upside price extension towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high. Above here will aim at the 1.6074 level, its Nov’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5666 level followed by the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Further down, support stands at the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and the 1.5235 level, its Jan 2012 low. On the whole, GBP continues to correct higher suggesting further price extension towards the 1.5770 level.

USDJPY: Bears Take Control, Risk Seen Towards The 76.54 Level.

2012-01-27T03:20:00.000-08:00

USDJPY: The pair is now on a second day of sell off following its failure to continue its recovery strength started from the 76.54 level. It looks like USDJPY could be building up downside momentum with the possibility of returning to the mentioned support at 76.54 level, its Jan 17’2012 low. If that level is taken out, further declines should shape up towards its 2011 low at 75.57 where a violation will aim at the 74.00 level ahead of the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, in order for the pair to restart its bullish strength, it will have to break and hold above the 78.20/27 levels. This will open up further upside towards the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside long term which is consistent with its present bear threats.

USDCHF – Under Pressure, Weakens Through The 0.9240 Level.

2012-01-26T13:35:00.001-08:00

USDCHF: The pair continues to weaken and remain vulnerable to the downside. This coming on the back of a break below the 0.9240 level, leaving USDCHF targeting further declines towards the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt may occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the pair will aim at the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low with a loss of there turning risk towards the 0.9591 level. Above here is required to resume its medium term uptrend and shift attention to the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. Further out, a violation of there will allow the pair to strengthen further towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high followed by its psycho level at 1.0000 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside on further correction.

AUDUSD: Builds On Its Bullish Offensive, Targets Medium Term Resistance.

2012-01-26T07:29:00.000-08:00

AUDUSD: Having rallied and reversed its Tuesday losses on Wednesday, the pair continues to strengthen further in early trading. This suggests that AUDUSD is likely headed towards the 1.0749 level, its Oct 27’2011 high. Further out, the pair the 1.0800 comes in as the next upside target followed by the 1.0900 level, all representing psycho levels. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the other hand, on any pullbacks, the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high will be aimed at where a violation will open the door for a run at 1.0444 level. A reversal of roles as support is expected to occur here and turn the pair higher. Below here if seen will set the stage for further declines towards the 1.0230 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 1.0141 level, its Jan 09’2012. All in all, the pair faces the risk of strengthening further having taken out its key resistance.

GBPUSD: Sees Further Bullish Momentum, Set To Return Above Its Key Support.

2012-01-26T02:12:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: The pair continues to strengthen following through higher on Wednesday and opening the door for further upside momentum. With the 1.5666 level, its Jan 03’2012 high now violated, the threat is for a full recapture of the 1.5691 level, its .50 Fib Ret. That level was being tested as at the time of this analysis. Above there will call for a run at 1.5770 level, its Dec 21’2011 high where we may see a price hesitation. However, if that level breaks, expect GBP to strengthen further towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5666 level followed by the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Further down, support stands at the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and the 1.5235 level, its Jan 2012 low. On the whole, GBP continues to correct higher suggesting further price extension towards the 1.5770 level.

GOLD: Surges Higher On Further Strength, Key Resistance Targeted.

2012-01-25T14:17:00.000-08:00

GOLD: With Gold turning sharply higher and reversing its Tuesday losses during Wednesday trading session, the risk is for the commodity to strengthen further towards the 1,714.55 level. Its present upside offensive is coming on the back of a recovery initiated from the 1,522.55 level. On a cut through the 1,714.55 level, the commodity will target the 1,762.50 level, its Dec 02’2011 high and then the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1,641.25 level, its Dec 21'2011 high where a violation will target the 1,600.00 level and then the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. Below here if seen will open the door for additional weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. All in all, Gold continues to build on its nearer term corrective recovery strength.

EURJPY: Maintains Bullish Tone, Eyes On The 102.52 level.

2012-01-25T08:04:00.001-08:00

EURJPY- With the cross sitting firmly above its key resistance at the 100.75 level and pressing further, the risk of recapturing the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low is now building up. This is coming on the back of a corrective recovery initiated from the 97.02 level on Jan 16’2012. A decisive clearance of the 102.52 level will set the stage for more gains towards its Dec 12’2011 high at 103.86 and then its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, the risk to our analysis will be a return to the 99.02 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur. However, below here will aim at the 97.02/00 levels where a breach will resume its broader downtrend towards the 96.76 level, its Dec 12’2000 low. Further down, support stands at the 96.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, EURJPY now faces a corrective recovery as it eyes further strength.

GBPJPY: Strengthens, Bullish Offensive Set For The 122.75 Level.

2012-01-25T03:36:00.000-08:00

GBPJPY: The cross rallied strongly on Tuesday building on its recovery and opening the door for a move further higher. With continued bullish offensive seen, the risk is for GBPJPY to head higher towards the 122.75 level, its Dec 22’2011 low. A cut through there will convince the market of further corrective gains towards the 123.14 level, its Nov 15’2011 high with loss of there aiming at the 127.30/21 levels. A breather is expected to occur here. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a break and hold below the 120.18 level, its Jan 03'2012 high. However, the bigger support lies at the 116.78 level, its Sept 22’2011 low. Further down, support stands at the 115.00 level, its psycho level and then the 114.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside nearer term on correction.

USDJPY: Breaks Out Of Consolidation, Pressure Builds On The 78.18 Level.

2012-01-24T07:35:00.001-08:00

USDJPY: The pair has rallied through its resistance levels at the 77.29/32 level during Tuesday training session and set the stage for further strength possibly toward its Dec 23’2011 high at the 78.20 level. This new technical development is coming on the back of a consolidation initiated following its declines from the 78.20-76.60 levels. On a continued recovery, further upside momentum will shape up towards the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high. This will be followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on any pullbacks, the 77.29/32 levels will be aimed at where a reversal of roles as support is expected. However, if this fails to occur we could see USDJPY decline further lower towards the 76.60 level and then the 74.00 level ahead of the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the upside nearer term on further corrective recovery.

USDJPY: Breaks Out Of Consolidation, Pressure Builds On The 78.18 Level.

2012-01-24T07:35:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: Pressured To The Upside, Nearer Term Corrective Recovery Intact.

2012-01-24T00:57:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: The pair looks to strengthen further after rallying strongly and reversing its one-day losses on Monday. This development now leaves EUR targeting the 1.3074 level, its Jan 03’2012 high with a cut through there allowing the pair to push further higher towards the 1.3197 level, its Dec 21’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, if its present recovery fails, the risk will be for EUR to restart its broader medium term downtrend by breaking the 1.2624 level. This will set the stage for further declines towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2479 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective recovery tone as it looks to strengthen further.

USDCHF - Sells Off, Reverses Friday Gains, Targets The 0.9240 Level.

2012-01-23T12:32:00.001-08:00

USDCHF: With a follow-through lower on the back of its last week losses seeing USDCHF reversing its Friday gains, risk of further decline is expected. In such a case, the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low will be targeted where a clearance will turn focus to the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt may occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the pair will target the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low with a loss of there turning risk towards the 0.9591 level. Above here is required to resume its medium term uptrend and shift attention to the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. Further out, a violation of there will allow the pair to strengthen further towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high followed by its psycho level at 1.0000 level. On the whole, the risk remains biased to the downside on further correction.

USDCAD: Weakens, Bearish Momentum Set For Extend.

2012-01-23T04:04:00.001-08:00

USDCAD: We continue to hold onto our downside view on USDCAD for further corrective declines as it weakened further the past week and followed through lower in today’s trading session. With a reversal of its Friday gains seen, the risk is for USDCAD to decline further towards the 1.0051/69 levels where a violation will open the door for a run at its Nov 01’2011 low at 0.9970. Further down, a breach of there will target the 0.9890 level, its Oct 27’2011 high. Both its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, the 1.0317 level will have to give way to put on hold its present weakness and then target the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high followed by its Nov 25’2011 high at 1.0524. Further out, its Oct’2011 high at 1.0665 will come in as the next upside target. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside on further correction.

GOLD: Sees Bullish Offensive, Holds Firmly On To Nearer Term Gains.

2012-01-22T17:33:00.000-08:00

GOLD: With a third week of strength seeing Gold closing higher the past week, further upside gains are envisaged in the new week. In such a case, the 1,714.55 level, its Dec 12’2011 high will be targeted with a violation turning attention to the 1,762.50 level. Further out, resistance comes in the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further gains. Alternatively, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. If this materializes it will open the door for additional weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its nearer term corrective recovery strength.

AUDUSD: Clears 1.0378/1.0444, Further Price Extension Expected.

2012-01-22T09:59:00.001-08:00

AUDUSD: With AUDUSD breaking and holding above its key resistance zones at 1.0378/84 levels and the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high the past week, further price extension is likely in the new week. This has turned focus to the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high where a breach will aim at Oct 2011 high at 1.0749. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, the risk to this analysis will be a return to 1.0378/84 levels where a reversal of roles as support is expected to occur and turn the pair higher again. However, below here if seen could send the pair to as low as its Jan 09’2012 low at 1.0141 where a violation will shift attention to the 1.0042 level, its Dec 29’2011 low and then the 0.9861 level followed by the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on further upside offensive having violated its key resistance levels.

EURUSD: Recovers, Faces Further Corrective Risk.

2012-01-22T04:44:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: EUR has triggered a strong recovery rallying off its Jan’2012 low at 1.2620 level to close higher at 1.2928 level. This development leaves the pair bullish into the new week with the risk of strengthening further towards the 1.3074 level and then the 1.3197 level. Above here if seen will aim at the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low. Its weekly RSI has turned higher supporting this view. On the other hand, if the pair fails to continue its recovery we may see it returning to the 1.2620 level where a break will resume its medium term weakness towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. We may see a breather here triggering a correction if tested but if that level is breached, expect the pair to weaken further towards the 1.2479 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.2400 level, its psycho level. All in all, EUR maintains its medium term downtrend as it looks to weaken further.

FX Technical Outlook on USDCHF Video

2012-01-21T11:51:00.000-08:00

In this video, we are looking at the USDCHF outlook for the coming week and beyond.

USDCHF: Bearish, Set To Correct Further Lower (The Week Ahead)

2012-01-21T04:16:00.001-08:00

USDCHF: With a second week of declines sending the pair further lower the past week, the risk is for USDCHF to weaken more in the new week. Although the pair continues to retain its medium term uptrend, its present correction has put that on hold and turned the risk to the downside towards the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low. A clearance of that level will turn focus to the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt may occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to break and close above the 0.9591 level to resume its medium term and shift focus to the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. Further out, a violation of there will allow the pair to strengthen further towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high followed by its psycho level at 1.0000 level. On the downside, the risk remains for the pair to decline further on further correction.

GBPUSD: Rallies, Bullish On Further Corrective Recovery.

2012-01-20T11:23:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: Having violated the 1.5497/1.5521 levels and reversed its previous week losses to close the week higher, GBP is set to strengthen further in the coming week. This is coming on the back of a corrective recovery triggered from the 1.5235 level, its Jan’ 2012 low. We are looking for the pair to strengthen further towards its .382 Fib Ret (1.6161-1.5235 declines) at 1.5582 with a break setting the stage for further recovery towards the 1.5666 level, its Jan 03’2012 high. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.5691 level, its .50 Fib Ret. Its daily and weekly RSI are bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to our upside view will be a return to the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and then the 1.5235 level, its Jan 2012 low. A break of the latter will aim at its .618 Fib Ret (1.4229-1.6736 rally) at 1.5187 and subsequently, its big psycho level at 1.5000 comes in as the next downside target. On the whole, GBP continues to correct higher suggesting further price extension towards the 1.5582 level.

AUDUSD: Holds On To Nearer Term Tone, Attention Points To The 1.0444 Level And Beyond.

2012-01-20T03:44:00.000-08:00

AUDUSD: The pair continues to maintain its upside tone as it looks to convincingly break and hold above its key resistance at the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high. AUDUSD has been strengthening since triggering a rally off the 0.9663 level in Nov’2011. A loss of the 1.0444 level will turn focus to the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.0141 level, its Jan 09’2012 low where a breach will set the stage for a run at the 1.0042 level, its Dec 29’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 0.9861 level and the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. All in all, the pair faces the risk of strengthening further having taken out its key resistance.

GBPUSD: Follows through Higher, Recovery Extension Set For .382 Fib Ret

2012-01-19T12:54:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: The pair extended its corrective recovery offensive today, rallying strongly on the back of its Wednesday strength and opening the door for further upside. This development now leaves GBP targeting its .382 Fib Ret (1.6161-1.5235 declines) at 1.5582 where a break will set the stage for further recovery towards the 1.5666 level, its Jan 03’2012 high. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.5691 level, its .50 Fib Ret. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the threat to our upside view will be a return to the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and the 1.5235 level, its Jan 2012 low. A break of the latter will aim at its .618 Fib Ret (1.4229-1.6736 rally) at 1.5187. Further down, its big psycho level at 1.5000 comes in as the next downside target. On the whole, GBP continues to correct higher suggesting further price extension towards the 1.5582 level.

This is an excerpt from our Pro Plus premium service, Pro Plus.

New Pro Plus Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

EURUSD: Strengthens, Maintains Nearer Term Recovery Tone.

2012-01-19T03:41:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: The pair has turned above the 1.2875 level, its Jan 13’2011 high suggesting further correction could extend. In such a case, the 1.2941 level, its Jan 05’2012 high will be targeted where we may see a price halt. However, if that level is broken, more strength is expected towards the 1.3074 level and next the 1.3197 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, on a failure of its present corrective recovery, EUR could restart its broader medium term downtrend by breaking the 1.2624 level. This will set the stage for further declines towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2479 level. All in all, EUR now faces a nearer term corrective recovery following it’s a halt of its recent declines.

GOLD: Takes Out The 1,641.25 Level, Targets Further Higher Prices.

2012-01-18T12:51:00.001-08:00

GOLD: With Gold breaking and holding above its key resistance at the 1,641.25 level, its Dec 21’2011 high, further upside risk is now building up. This will push the commodity further higher towards the 1,677.35 level, its Dec 13’2011 high. Further out, the 1,762.50 level comes in as the next upside followed by the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further gains. Alternatively, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. If this materializes it will open the door for additional weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its nearer term corrective strength.

USDCHF: Susceptible To The Downside On Price Failure.

2012-01-18T08:12:00.001-08:00

USDCHF: The pair is now on a second day of downside weakness after it backed off higher prices on Tuesday. Despite this, USDCHF remains biased to the upside in the medium term. While the pair holds above its key support at the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low, we look for it to return to the 0.9548/91 levels. An eventual clearance of that zone will resume its medium term uptrend and aim at the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high with a violation of there allowing the pair to aim at the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high. Further out, its psycho level at 1.0000 level will come in as the next upside target. Alternatively, support lies at 0.9301 level followed by the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low where a breach if seen will push the pair further lower towards the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt is likely to occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside medium term though presently facing bear threats.

GBPUSD: Recovery loses Steam, Vulnerable To The Downside.

2012-01-18T04:12:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: The pair’s recovery is now fading suggesting it could return to the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low. A break of there will aim at the 1.5235 level with a cut through that level extending further declines towards its .618 Fib Ret at 1.5187 (1.4229-1.6736 rally). Further down, its big psycho level at 1.5000 comes in as the next downside target. Alternatively, the risk to this analysis will be a violation of the 1.5406 level. This will clear the way for a move towards the 1.5770/79 levels. Above here will have to be traded to trigger further strength towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high. On the whole, GBP’s downside vulnerability remains intact despite its current attempt at recovering.

Dollar Index: Hesitates But Maintains Its Broader Medium Term Uptrend.

2012-01-17T12:47:00.000-08:00

US Dollar Index: Although price hesitation has set in turning US Index lower off the 81.78 level, it continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend triggered from the 72.69 level. This development leaves the possibility of a return to the 81.78 level where a breach will extend further strength towards the 74.72 level, its Oct 2011 low. Further out, its key resistance zone standing at the 81.31/44 will come in as the next upside target. The Index will have to decisively break and hold above that zone to advance further towards the 82.82 level, its .618 Fib Ret (88.70-72.69 declines) with a breach of there turning attention to the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high. Alternatively, on the down side, the 79.51 level, its Jan 03’2012 high will come in as the immediate support where a break will aim at the 77.97 level and then the 76.71 level. A possible bounce higher could occur here but if taken out, the Index will face further downside pressure towards the 73.42 level, its July 27’2011 low. All in all, the Index may have backed off higher prices but continues to retain its medium term bullish tone.

USDCAD: Extends Weakness, Heads Towards Key Support At The 1.0074 Level.

2012-01-17T04:41:00.000-08:00

USDCAD: The pair is weakening for a second day in a row following a reversal of its Friday gains on Monday. This development now leaves the risk of a return to the 1.0074 level, its Jan 03’2012 low. A violation of here will set the stage for more declines towards its nearby support at the 1.0051 level, its Dec 08’2011 low where a clearance will target its Nov 01’2011 low at 0.9970. A breather could occur here and turn USDCAD higher but if that level snaps, further declines could build up towards the 0.9890 level, its Oct 27’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, USDCAD will have to return above the 1.0317 level and the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high to halt its present weakness and then resume its strength towards its Nov 25’2011 high at 1.0524. Further out, its Oct’2011 high at 1.0665 will serve as the next upside target followed by its May 2011 high at 1.0852. All in all, the pair continues to remain vulnerable on bear pressure.

AUDUSD: Breaks Through The 1.0378/84 Levels, Eyes Further Strength.

2012-01-17T02:57:00.000-08:00

AUDUSD: With AUDUSD rallying through its key resistance at 1.0378/84 zone in early trading today, further strength is expected towards the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high. The pair has been strengthening since turning off the 0.9663 level in Nov’2011. A loss of the 1.0444 level will turn focus to the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.0141 level, its Jan 09’2012 low where a breach will set the stage for a run at the 1.0042 level, its Dec 29’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 0.9861 level and the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. All in all, the pair faces the risk of strengthening further having taken out its key resistance.

FX Technical Strategy - EURJPY Video

2012-01-16T12:08:00.000-08:00

Below is our latest video on EURJPY outlook. Enjoy it and happy trading.

EURJPY: Long Term Downtrend Remains Intact, Pressure Builds On The 96.76 Level.

2012-01-16T06:16:00.000-08:00

EURJPY- The cross remains biased to the downside in the long term as it continues to hold on to its long term bearishness and looks to decline further. As long as the 98.77 level caps, the immediate risk points to its psycho level at 97.00 level where a breach will send EURJPY further lower towards the 96.76 level, its Dec 12’2000 low. A cut through here will allow for further declines towards the 96.00 level, its psycho level. Both its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, on any corrective recovery, the cross will have to convincingly break and hold above the 98.77 level to put its present downside threats on hold and bring more gains towards the 100.75/25 levels. Above here if seen will open the door for further upside towards the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low where a violation will target its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69. All in all, EURJPY looks to weaken further with eyes on the 97.00/96.76 levels.

EURUSD: Maintains Its Bearish Tone, Downside Risk Set For Its Major Level.

2012-01-16T01:12:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: With EUR holding on to its bearish momentum, our bias remains for it to weaken further towards its major support at the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. We may see a breather here triggering a correction on an initial test but if that level is breached, expect the pair to weaken further towards the 1.2479 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.2400 level, its psycho level, its daily and weekly RSI is bullish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the 1.2874/56 levels will be targeted where a reversal of roles as resistance is expected to occur and turn the pair back down. However, if that zone is taken out, more strength is likely towards the 1.3074 level and then the 1.3197 level. Above here if seen will aim at the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term downtrend as it looks to weaken further.

GBPUSD: Weakens, Downside Risk Set For The 1.5270/35 Levels

2012-01-15T11:06:00.001-08:00

GBPUSD: The pair maintains its medium term downtrend as it saw further weakness on the back of its previous week losses on Friday. Though this development saw GBP testing a low of 1.5235 level, it failed to hold below the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low. It will have to forcefully violate there to convince the market of further bearish momentum possibly towards its .618 Fib Ret at 1.5187 (1.4229-1.6736 rally). A cut through here will set the stage for a run at its big psycho level at 1.5000 where a breather may occur. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, the pair will have to return above the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high to reduce its present weakness. This if seen will bring further strength towards the 1.5770/79 levels where a violation will send the pair further higher towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high and then the 1.6161 level, its Oct 31’2011 high. On the whole, GBP looks to weaken further having continued to hold on its medium term bearish momentum.

AUDUSD: Bullish, Key Resistance Seen At The 1.0378/84 Levels.

2012-01-15T04:05:00.000-08:00

AUDUSD: While the pair continues to retain its corrective recovery tone, the challenge is for AUDUSD to decisively break and hold above the 1.0378/84 levels. This will set the stage for further strength towards the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high with a loss of there turning focus to the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, the risk to this analysis will be a return to its Jan 09’2012 low at 1.0141 where a violation will turn attention to the 1.0042 level, its Dec 29’2011 low and then the 0.9861 level. A loss of there will call for further decline towards the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on further upside offensive.

GBPUSD: Declines, Set To Recapture Its Key Support.

2012-01-14T04:47:00.001-08:00

GBPUSD: The pair is maintaining a firm hold on to its medium term downtrend as it followed through lower on the back of its previous week losses on Friday. Though this development saw GBP testing a low of 1.5235 level, it failed to hold below the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low. A convincing violation of there is required to convince the market of further bearish momentum possibly towards its .618 Fib Ret at 1.5187 (1.4229-1.6736 rally). A cut through here will set the stage for a run at its big psycho level at 1.5000 where a breather may occur. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, the pair will have to return above the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high to reduce its present weakness. This if seen will bring further strength towards the 1.5770/79 levels where a violation will send the pair further higher towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high and then the 1.6161 level, its Oct 31’2011 high. On the whole, GBP looks to weaken further having continued to hold on its medium term bearish momentum.

USDJPY: Susceptible, Closes In On The 76.57 Level

2012-01-13T05:57:00.000-08:00

USDJPY: As vulnerability to the downside remains, USDJPY looks to return to its Jan 04’2012/Nov 18’2011 lows at 76.57/60. On a clearance of that level, further bear pressure will build up towards the 74.00 level and then the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, USDJPY will have to climb back above the 78.18/27 levels to put its present bear threats on hold. This will open the door for a run at the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside in the long term as it looks to resume that trend.

EURUSD: Halts Weakness, Begins Correction

2012-01-13T02:01:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: The pair has halted its medium term weakness and triggered a recovery breaking above its minor resistance at the 1.2816 level. However, EUR continues to hold on to its broader medium term downtrend. This suggests a recapture of the 1.2664 level, its Jan 09’2012 low could follow on ending its current recovery. A decisive violation of there will call for a move further lower towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2479 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting its medium term downside bias. Alternatively, on continued recovery, the 1.2941 level, its Jan 05’2011 high will be targeted where a breather is expected to occur and then turn the pair back down. However, if that level is broken, further strength is likely towards the 1.3074 level and the 1.3197 level. Above here will aim at the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low. All in all, EUR continues to retain its medium term downtrend though recovering.

GOLD: Sees Corrective Recovery Extension, Set To Target Further Upside Gains.

2012-01-12T23:04:00.001-08:00

GOLD: With Gold holding slightly higher above its key resistance at the 1,641.25 level, its Dec 21’2011 high following its continued nearer term upside offensive, the risk is for further extension to follow. This will set the stage for a run at the 1,677.35 level, its Dec 13’2011 high where a breach will bring more bullish offensive towards the 1,762.50 level. Further out, resistance comes incomes in at the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further gains. Alternatively, the risk to this analysis will be for the commodity to return to the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. This if it occurs will open the door for additional weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its nearer term corrective recovery tone.

GBPJPY: Targets Further Declines, Eyes The 116.78 Level.

2012-01-12T08:23:00.000-08:00

GBPJPY – With GBPJPY maintaining its long term downtrend and weakening, there is risk of further declines towards the 116.78 level, its Sept 22’2011 low. The cross has been weakening since tumbling off its Oct'2011 level at 127.30. Further down, support lies at the 115.00 level, its psycho level and then the 114.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, to put on hold its present downside threats, the cross will have to break and close above the 122.75 level, its Dec 22’2011 low. A convincing violation of here is required to create scope for further upside gains towards the 123.14 level, its Nov 15’2011 high with a loss of there aiming at the 127.30/21 levels. A breather is expected to occur here but if it breaks, further strength will shape up toward the 128.85 level, its Aug 08’2011 high. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside in the long term as it targets the 116.78 level.

AUDUSD: Strengthens, Set To Recapture Key Resistance Levels.

2012-01-12T04:44:00.001-08:00

AUDUSD: With a build up on its rally started from the 1.0141 level in force, AUDUSD now looks to return above its key resistance levels. In such a case, its resistance zone at the 1.0378/84 levels will come in as its immediate upside target with a clearance of that region setting the stage for further strength towards the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high. A loss of there will turn focus to the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside gains. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.0141 level, its Jan 09’2012 low where we may see a breather. However, if this level is breached, it will pave the way for a run at the 1.0042 level, its Dec 29’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 0.9861 level and the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. All in all, the pair faces the risk of returning above the 1.0378/84 levels and beyond.

Dollar Index: Bullish Momentum Extends, Up Against Key Resistance.

2012-01-11T13:17:00.000-08:00

US Dollar Index: With continued bullish momentum remaining intact following Dollar Index’s medium term rally started from the 74.72 level, its Oct 2011 low, it now looks to take out its key resistance zone at the 81.31/44 levels. The Index will have to decisively break and hold above this key zone to extend further bullish offensive towards the 82.82 level, its .618 Fib Ret (88.70-72.69 declines) with a breach of here turning attention to the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high. Both its daily and weekly RSI are bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, on any pullbacks, the 79.51 level, its Jan 03’2012 high will come in as the immediate support where a break will aim at the 77.97 level and then the 76.71 level. A possible bounce higher could occur here but if taken out, the Index will face further downside pressure towards the 73.42 level, its July 27’2011 low. All in all, with the Index continuing to retain its medium term bullish tone, further upside gain is expected in the days ahead.

GBPUSD: Sells Off, Prepares To Retake The 1.5270 Level (Special Focus)

2012-01-11T08:20:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: With a sharp sell-off reversing GBP’s two-day recovery and breaking its minor support at 1.5376 level, the risk of further weakness is now expected towards its key support located at the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low. This level remains a barrier that must be overcome in order for GBP to resume its medium term downtrend towards its .618 Fib Ret at 1.5187 (1.4229-1.6736 rally) and possibly lower towards its big psycho level at 1.5000. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, the pair will have to return above the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high to reverse its present declines. This will bring further strength towards the 1.5770/79 levels where a violation will send the pair further higher towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high and then the 1.6161 level, its Oct 31’2011 high. On the whole, GBP’s downside vulnerability remains intact as it looks to resume its medium term weakness.

EURJPY: Hesitates, Broader Bias Still Lower.

2012-01-11T04:54:00.000-08:00

EURJPY- Despite its present attempt at recovering, it continues to hold on to its long term downtrend. This leaves the risk of a return to the 97.27/00 levels where a break will call for a move further lower towards the 96.76 level, its Dec 12’2000 low. Further down, support stands at the 96.00 level, its psycho level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, on any corrective recovery, the cross will have to convincingly break and hold above the 100.75 level to reduce its present bear threats and then target the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low. This if broken will trigger further upside gains towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69. All in all, EURJPY looks to weaken further with eyes on the 97.27/00 levels.

EURUSD: Loses Recovery Momentum, Price Hesitation Sets In

2012-01-10T13:46:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: Although the pair is attempting a recovery higher, price hesitation has set in after losing upside momentum at 1.2816 level during tuesday trading session.This suggests the resumption of its broader medium term downtrend could be building up. In such a case, the 1.2664 level, its Jan 09’2012 low will be targeted where a decisive violation will call for a move further lower towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2479 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting its medium term downside bias. Alternatively, on continued recovery, the 1.2874/56 levels will be targeted where a reversal of roles as resistance is expected to occur and then turn the pair back down. However, if that zone is broken, more strength is likely towards the 1.3074 level and the 1.3197 level. Above here will aim at the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low. All in all, EUR continues to retain its medium term downtrend despite its attempts ar recovering.

This is an excerpt from our Extra Value Suite premium service, The Extra Value Suite.

New Extra Value Suite Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

USDJPY: Broadly Biased To The Downside, Targets The 76.57/60 Levels.

2012-01-10T06:34:00.000-08:00

USDJPY: The risk continues to point to the downside as USDJPY looks to weaken towards its Jan 04’2012/Nov 18’2011 lows at 76.57/60. On a clearance of that level, further bear pressure will build up towards the 74.00 level and then the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, USDJPY will have to climb back above the 78.18/27 levels to put its present bear threats on hold. This will open the door for a run at the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside in the long term as it looks to resume that trend.

AUDUSD: Rallies, Set To Return Above The 1.0378/84 Levels.

2012-01-10T03:29:00.000-08:00

AUDUSD: With a second day of recovery now seeing the pair rallying, AUDUSD is now preparing to return to its Dec 08’2011/Jan 03'2012 highs at 1.0378/84. If this materializes, further upside offensive will shape up towards the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high with a loss of there turning focus to the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.0141 level, its Jan 09’2012 low where a breach will set the stage for a run at the 1.0042 level, its Dec 29’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 0.9861 level and the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. All in all, the pair faces the risk of returning to the 1.0378/84 levels and beyond.

CRUDE OIL: Retains Medium Term Bias, Upside Risk Points To The 103.38/72 Levels.

2012-01-09T13:01:00.000-08:00

CRUDE OIL: While Crude Oil may be hesitating, it continues to hold on to its medium term bias and faces the risk of returning to its key resistance level at 103.38/72. This zone is very crucial to its medium term uptrend as a violation of there will turn attention to the 104.60 level, its May 11’2011 high. Further out, its major resistance resides at 114.81 level, its May’2011 high. Its higher time frame charts are supportive of this view. Alternatively, the risk to this analysis will be for the commodity to return to the 94.99 level where a breach will call for a run at the 94.13 level, its Aug 03’2011 low and then the 90.69 level, its Sept 07’2011 high. We may see a respite here turning the commodity back up but if this fails to occur, further declines should target the 84.22 level. All in all, Crude Oil faces the risk of climbing back above the 103.38/72 levels though hesitating.

This is an excerpt from our Extra Value Suite premium service, The Extra Value Suite.

New Extra Value Suite Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

GBPUSD: Maintains Its Medium Term Downtrend, Keys Support Seen At 1.5270 Level.

2012-01-09T06:48:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: The pair may have backed off lower prices and attempting to initiate a recovery but continues to hold on its medium term weakness. This leaves the bigger risk towards the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low where a break will extend further declines towards its .618 Fib Ret at 1.5187 (1.4229-1.6736 rally) and possibly lower towards its big psycho level at 1.5000. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, GBP will have to return above the 1.5770/79 levels to reverse its current bear threats. This if seen will bring further upside offensive towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high and then the 1.6161 level, its Oct 31’2011 high. On the whole, GBP’s downside vulnerability remains intact despite its current attempt at recovering.

USDCHF: Hesitates But Broader Medium Term Bias points To The Upside (Daily Technical Strategist).

2012-01-09T02:48:00.000-08:00

USDCHF: Though seen backing off higher prices, it continues to face the risk of a return to the 0.9548 level, its Dec 15’2011 high. An eventual clearance of there will resume its medium term uptrend and call for a run at the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high with a violation of there allowing for USDCHF to aim at the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high. Further out, its psycho level at 1.0000 level will come in as the next upside target. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, its just violated resistance at 0.9548 will reverse roles as support on any pullback. Further down, support stands at the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low where a breach if seen will push the pair further lower towards the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt is likely to occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside having taken out the 0.9548 level.

EURJPY: susceptible, Price Extension To Target The 97.00 Level

2012-01-08T16:56:00.000-08:00

EURJPY- With EURJPY extending its downside weakness the past week, further decline is envisaged in the new week. This will open the door for a decline towards its psycho level at 97.00 level with a breach of here sending the cross further lower towards the 97.00 level, its psycho level. A cut through here will allow for further declines towards the 96.76 level, its Dec 12’2000 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, on any corrective recovery, the cross will have to convincingly break and hold above the 100.75 level and the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low to reduce its present downside pressure. This if it occurs will trigger further upside towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69. All in all, EURJPY looks to weaken further with eyes on the 97.00 level.

GOLD: Corrective Recovery Remains In Progress, Risk Points To The 1,641.25 Level.

2012-01-08T12:54:00.001-08:00

GOLD: Having reversed its past week losses to close higher the past week, the risk is for further correction to occur in the new week/. This will leave Gold targeting the 1,641.25 level, its Dec 21’2011 high with a violation of that level sending the commodity further higher towards the 1,677.35 level, its Dec 13’2011 high. Further out, the 1,762.50 level comes in as the next upside followed by the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high. Its weekly RSI has turned bullish and pointing higher suggesting further gains. Alternatively, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. This if it materializes will open the door for additional weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its nearer tern corrective strength.

USDCAD: Rejects Lower Prices, Triggers Corrective Recovery.

2012-01-08T09:09:00.000-08:00

USDCAD: Having rejected lower level prices and triggered a recovery to close higher the past week, USDCAD now looks to strengthen further. This has set the stage for a further upside towards the 1.0305 level, its Dec 21’2011 high. A clearance of here will bring gains towards the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high followed by its Nov 25’2011 high at 1.0524. Further out, its Oct’2011 high at 1.0665 will come in as the next upside target. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. Alternatively, despite its present corrective recovery, the pair remains vulnerable to downside suggesting any price failure will see it turning lower towards the 1.0074/51 level. Below here will aim at its Nov 01’2011 low at 0.9970. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9890 level, its Oct 27’2011 high on further weakness. All in all, the pay may have started a correction of its recent declines.

EURUSD: Sees Bearish Momentum Extension, Eyes The 1.2587 Level.

2012-01-08T05:59:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: EUR continues to weaken breaking below the 1.2874/56 levels to close the week lower. This now leaves the risk of further weakness towards its Sept 2010 low at 1.2703 where a breach will pave the way for further declines towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2479 level. Its daily and weekly RSI are bullish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the 1.2874/56 levels eroded the past week will be targeted where a reversal of roles as resistance is expected to turn the pair back down. However, if that zone is taken out, more weakness is likely towards the 1.3074 level and then the 1.3197 level. Above here if seen will aim at the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low. All in all, EUR has resumed its medium term downtrend as it looks to weaken further.

USDCHF: Takes Out Key Resistance, Bull Pressure To Target 0.9772 Level (The Week Ahead)

2012-01-07T03:12:00.000-08:00

USDCHF: With the pair breaking above its key resistance at the 0.9548 level (Dec 15’2011 high) and resuming its medium term uptrend started from the 0.7068 level, the immediate risk for USDCHF is to strengthen further in the new week. In such a case, the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high will be targeted with a violation of there allowing for the pair to aim at the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high. Further out, its psycho level at 1.000 level will come in as the next upside target. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, its just violated resistance at 0.9548 will reverse roles as support on any pullback. Further down, support stands at the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low where a breach if seen will push the pair further lower towards the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt is likely to occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside having taken out the 0.9548 level.

EURJPY: Weakens, Further Bear Pressure Eyes The 97.00 Level.

2012-01-06T06:40:00.000-08:00

EURJPY- Having maintained a firm hold on to its long term downtrend, further declines are envisaged towards the 98.00 level, its psycho level. A cut through here will allow for further declines towards the 96.76 level, its Dec 12’2000 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, on any corrective recovery, the cross will have to convincingly break and hold above the 100.75 level and the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low to reduce its present downside pressure. This if it occurs will trigger further upside towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69. All in all, EURJPY looks to weaken further with eyes on the 98.00 level.

GBPUSD: Vulnerable, Set To Extend Weakness (Daily Technical Strategist)

2012-01-06T02:36:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: The pair sold off strongly on Thursday suggesting further downside weakness is likely. This is coming on the back of a failure ahead of the 1.5770/79 levels. The focus has now shifted to the 1.5359 level, its Dec 2011 low with a loss of here setting the stage for a move further lower towards the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low. Below here will extend further weakness towards its big psycho level at 1.5000. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, a firm break and close above the 1.5770/79 levels will have to occur to reverse its current bear threats and then bring further upside offensive towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high. A breach will aim at the 1.6161 level, its Oct 31’2011 high. On the whole, GBP’s downside vulnerability remains as long as it continues to trade and hold below the 1.5770/79 Levels.

EURUSD: Violates The 1.2874/56 Levels, Focus Turns To Its Major Support (Special Focus)

2012-01-05T12:04:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: With continued sell off breaking the 1.2874/56 levels during Thursday trading session, further bearish momentum is expected in the days ahead. This will leave the risk of further weakness towards its Sept 2010 low at 1.2703 where a breach will set the stage for further declines towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2479 level. Its daily and weekly RSI are bullish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the 1.2874/56 levels will be targeted where a reversal of roles as resistance is expected to turn the pair back down. However, if that zone is broken, further recovery higher is likely towards the 1.3074 level and the 1.3197 level. Above here if seen will aim at the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low followed by the 1.3419 level, its Nov 17’2011 low and then its 1.3547 level, its Dec 02’2011 high. All in all, EUR continues has resumed its medium term downtrend with eyes on further declines.

This is an excerpt from our Extra Value Suite premium service, The Extra Value Suite.

New Extra Value Suite Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

USDCHF: Bulls Take Control, Strength Set For The 0.9548 Level.

2012-01-05T05:38:00.000-08:00

USDCHF: With the pair strengthening for second day and now testing its minor resistance at the 0.9468 level, further upside risk is expected. This will expose its key resistance at the 0.9548 level where a breach will target the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. Above here if seen will resume broader uptrend and extend bull pressure towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on a return below the 0.9246 level, USDCHF will resume its weakness towards the 0.9175 level. A halt is likely to occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level snaps, lower level prices will shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low and next the 0.8954 level, its Nov 11’11 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on corrective weakness.

This is an excerpt from our Pro Plus premium service, Pro Plus.

New Pro Plus Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

EURJPY: Resumes Long Term Downtrend, Focus Turns To The 98.00 Level.

2012-01-05T01:49:00.001-08:00

EURJPY- Having reversed its Tuesday gains on Wednesday to resume its long term downtrend, EURJPY now looks to weaken further towards its psycho level at 98.00. A cut through here will allow for further declines towards the 96.76 level, its Dec 12’2000 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, on any corrective recovery the cross will have to convincingly break and hold above the 100.75 level and the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low to reduce its present downside pressure. This if it occurs will trigger further upside recovery towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69 and possibly further higher. All in all, EURJPY looks to weaken further with eyes on the 98.00 level.

GOLD: Strengthens On Corrective Recovery, Eyes Key Resistance.

2012-01-04T12:42:00.000-08:00

GOLD: While Gold’s nearer term bias remains to the upside as the commodity continues to strengthen, a convincing violation of the 1,641.25 level, its Dec 21’2011 high is required to pave the way for further upside gains. This will push the commodity further higher and then target the 1,677.35 level, its Dec 13’2011 high where a violation will set it up for a move towards the 1,762.50 level. Further out, the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high comes in as the next upside resistance. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further gains. Alternatively, the risk to our analysis will be a return to the 1,522.55 level, its Dec 2011 low. This if it materializes will open the door for additional weakness towards its psycho level at 1,500.00. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its strengthen on corrective recovery.

This is an excerpt from our Extra Value Suite premium service, The Extra Value Suite.

New Extra Value Suite Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

EURGBP: Takes Out The 0.8301 Level, Set To Weaken Further (Daily Technical Strategist)

2012-01-04T06:41:00.000-08:00

EURGBP- With EURGBP selling and breaking below its key support at the 0.8301 level, further bearish momentum is set to continue. With that said, we expect the cross to decline further towards its nearby support at the 0.8284 level, its Jan 10’2011 low. Further down, its psycho level/Sept 2010 low at 0.8200 will serve as the next support on continued bearishness. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, the 0.8368/0.8421 levels will come in as resistance where a reversal of roles is expected to occur and then turn the cross back down. However, if a cut through those levels occurs, its Dec 08’2011 high at 0.8560 will be targeted where a breach will expose the 0.8616 level and then the 0.8794 level, its Sept 21’2011 high. All in all, bear pressure remains intact having resumed its medium term downtrend.

EURUSD: Susceptible, Recovers With Caution (Daily Technical Strategist)

2012-01-04T01:45:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: Corrective recovery is now in place but while that occurs below the 1.3197 level and the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low, risk points lower in the medium term. This leaves the threat of a return to its Dec 2011 low at 1.2856 on the cards where a violation will resume its medium term weakness towards the 1.2700 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.2587 level. Alternatively, the pair will require a break and hold above the 1.3197 level and the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low to reduce its broader medium term downside pressure. This will bring further gains towards the 1.3419 level, its Nov 17’2011 low and then its 1.3547 level, its Dec 02’2011 high. Further out, the 1.4241 level, its Oct 27’2011 high comes in as the next upside targets. All in all, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias despite its present recovery attempts.

USDJPY: Declines, Closes In On The 76.57 Level and Beyond (Special Focus)

2012-01-03T12:29:00.000-08:00

USDJPY: Having continued to maintain its downside tone, USDJPY now looks to return to its Nov 18’2011 low at 76.57. On a clearance of that level, further bear pressure will build up towards the 74.00 level and then the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, USDJPY will have to climb back above the 78.18/27 levels to put its present bear threats on hold. This will open the door for a run at the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside in the long term as it looks to resume that trend.

This is an excerpt from our most popular premium service, The Professional Suite.

New Professional Suite Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

AUDUSD: Builds Up Gains, Targets The 1.0378 Level (Daily Technical Strategist).

2012-01-03T05:59:00.001-08:00

AUDUSD: Having continued to build on its recovery triggered from the 0.9861 level, risk of further strength is building up towards its Dec 08’2011 high at 1.0378. On a decisive break and hold above here, AUDUSD will strengthen further towards the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high and then the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 0.9861 level with a loss of there calling for further decline towards the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. A breach will turn focus to its Nov’2011 low at 0.9663 level and possibly lower towards the 0.9600 level. All in all, the pair continues to face upside offensive nearer term.

This is an excerpt from our most popular premium service, The Professional Suite.

New Professional Suite Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

USDCAD: Weakens, Risk Builds On The 1.0051 Level (Daily Technical Strategist)

2012-01-02T23:16:00.000-08:00

USDCAD: With the pair seen taking back its past week gains in early trading today, the risk of a return to the 1.0051 level, its Dec 08’2011 low is now building up. This if seen will leave the pair targeting its Nov 01’2011 low at 0.9970. A breather could occur here but if that level snaps, further declines could build up towards the 0.9890 level, its Oct 27’2011 high and possibly lower. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, USDCAD will have to return above the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high to halt its present weakness and then resume its strength towards its Nov 25’2011 high at 1.0524. Further out, its Oct’2011 high at 1.0665 will serve as the next upside target followed by its May 2011 high at 1.0852. All in all, the pair continues to remain vulnerable on bear pressure.

This is an excerpt from our most popular premium service, The Professional Suite.

New Professional Suite Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

EURJPY: Sees Bearish Pressure, Targets Key Supports.(Daily Technical Strategist)

2012-01-02T07:47:00.000-08:00

EURJPY-Having violated its key supports at the 100.00/99.87 levels, its psycho level/July’2010 lows, EURJPY continues to face further downside momentum. In such a case, its psycho levels at the 99.00 level and the 98.00 level will be targeted with a cut through those levels allowing for further declines towards the 96.76 level, its Dec 12’2000 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, on any corrective recovery, EURJPY will have to convincingly break and hold above the 100.75 level and the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low to reduce its present downside pressure. This if seen will trigger further upside recovery towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69 and possibly further higher. All in all, EURJPY looks to weaken further with eyes on the 99.00 and 98.00 levels.

EURGBP: Halts Corrective Recovery, Bearish Momentum Set To Continue (Daily Technical Strategist)

2012-01-02T02:20:00.000-08:00

EURGBP- Outlook for EURGBP remains lower following a reversal of most of its corrective recovery gains triggered from the 0.8301 level and a lower weekly close. With that said, we expect the cross to return to that level (0.8301) on continued downside pressure with a cut through there allowing for more declines towards the 0.8284 level, its Jan 10’2011 low. Further down, its psycho level at 0.8200 will serve as the next support. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, the 0.8421/85 levels will come in as resistance where a reversal of roles is expected to occur and then turn the cross back down. However, if a cut through there occurs, its Dec 08’2011 high at 0.8560 will be targeted where a breach will expose the 0.8616 level and then the 0.8794 level, its Sept 21’2011 high. All in all, bear pressure remains intact having maintained its medium term downtrend.

GBPUSD: Maintains Bearish Bias, Risk Seen Towards The 1.5270 Level.

2012-01-01T05:45:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: Having closed lower the past week, GBP remains vulnerable to the downside as we enter 2012 suggesting a follow through lower on the back its medium term weakness could play out. This is coming on the back of its Nov and Dec’2011 weakness and if a continuation of that decline is seen, the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low will be targeted with a break of here extending further bear pressure towards its big psycho level at 1.5000. Price hesitation could be seen here with the risk of a correction but if this fails to materialize, further declines could shape up towards the 1.4871 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, GBP will have to break and hold above the 1.5770 level, its Dec 21’2011 high to halt its bear threats and open the door for further recovery higher towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high. A breach will aim at the 1.6161 level, its Oct 31’2011 high. On the whole, GBP’s downside vulnerability remains intact with the risk of further downside pressure probable.

EURUSD: Bearish In The Medium Term, Weak And Vulnerable Into New Week (Weekly Technical Strategist)

2012-01-01T02:34:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: With EUR weakening in Nov and Dec’2011, it enters the New Year (2012) bearish and pointing lower suggesting we could see further declines in the new week. In such a case, its major support located at the 1.2874 level, its Jan’2011 low will be targeted where we may see a breather. However, if this fails to occur, the pair will weaken further with eyes on the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low with a violation of there paving the way for more downside pressure towards the 1.2400 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3144 level followed by the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low to reduce its broader medium term downside pressure now in place. A reversal of roles as resistance could occur at these levels but if that fails, it will bring further gains towards the 1.3419 level, its Nov 17’2011 low and then its 1.3547 level, its Dec 02’2011 high. Further out, the 1.4241 level, its Oct 27’2011 high. All in all, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias as we enter 2012 with risk of further weakness threatening.

USDCHF: Biased To The Upside Medium Term But Faces Price Hesitation (The Week Ahead)

2011-12-31T03:51:00.000-08:00

USDCHF - Although USDCHF continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend, price hesitation remains a concern. The pair will have to convincingly break and hold above the 0.9548 level to reverse its present price hesitation and trigger the resumption of its medium term uptrend towards the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. Above here will extend bull pressure towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at its Dec 21’2011 low at 0.9240 with a clearance of there turning risk to the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt is likely to occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level snaps, lower level prices will shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low and next the 0.8954 level, its Nov 11’11 low. All in all, the pair may be holding on to its medium term uptrend but continues to face price hesitation.

USDJPY: Sells Off On Price Failure, Bear Risk Builds On The 76.57 Level (Special Focus)

2011-12-30T11:14:00.000-08:00

USDJPY: With USDJPY’s inability to return above the 78.18/27 levels seeing it turning lower on Thursday and during Friday trading session, further bearish momentum looks to continue in the new week. This if triggered will set the stage for a run at the 76.57 level, Nov 18’2011 low with a cut through there targeting the 75.57 level, its Oct’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 74.00 level and then the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, USDJPY will have to climb back above the 78.18/27 levels to end its present weakness and trigger further strength towards the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high. Further out, resistance comes in at the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside in the long term as it looks to weaken further in the days ahead.

EURJPY: Clears The 101.02/100.75 Levels, Set To Extend Further Declines (Daily Technical Strategist)

2011-12-30T00:55:00.000-08:00

EURJPY-With the cross taking its support at its Dec 15’2011 low at 101.02 and another key support located at the 100.75 level, representing its Oct’2011 low, risk of continued bearishness is likely. In such a case, the 100.00/99.87 levels, its psycho level/July’2010 lows will be targeted with a violation of there extending further downside weakness toward its psycho levels at the 99.00 level and the 98.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, on any corrective offensive, EURJPY will have to convincingly break and hold above the 100.75 level and the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low to reduce its present downside pressure. This if seen will trigger further upside recovery towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69 and possibly further higher. All in all, EURJPY faces the possibility of weakening further having taken out the 100.75 level.

GOLD: Clears Key Support, Continues To Role Over (Commodity Technical Outlook)

2011-12-29T07:20:00.000-08:00

GOLD: The commodity is maintaining a second day of weakness following its strong sell off through its key support located at the 1,560.45 level, its Dec 15’2011 low on Wednesday. With Gold now challenging the 1,532.90 level, its Sept’2011 low, a convincing violation of that level will drive the commodity further lower towards its big psycho level at 1,500.00. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the commodity will aim at the 1,560.45 level, its Dec 15’2011 low where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn it back lower. However, if this level breaks, further bull pressure could follow towards 1,641.25 level and then the 1,560.45 level, its Dec 15’2011 low. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1,600 level followed by the 1,677.33 level, its Dec 13’2011 high. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its medium term bearish momentum as it looks to extend its sell off.

EURUSD: Extends Bearish Momentum, Targets Its Major Support (Daily Technical Strategist)

2011-12-29T02:11:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: With EUR selling off and breaking below its key support at the 1.2945 level, its Dec 14’2011 low on Wednesday, further bearish momentum is expected to target the 1.2874 level, its Jan 2011 low. We may see a breather at this level but if it gives in, further declines should shape towards the 1.2703 level and then the 1.2587 level, its Aug’2010 low. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, the pair will aim at the 1.2945 level but it will have to break and hold above the 1.3197 level followed by the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low to reduce its broader medium term downside pressure now in place. This will bring further gains towards the 1.3419 level, its Nov 17’2011 low and then its 1.3547 level, its Dec 02’2011 high. Further out, the 1.4241 level, its Oct 27’2011 high. All in all, having resumed its medium term downtrend, broader downside risk now targets the 1.2874 level and the 1.2703 level.

This is an excerpt from our most popular premium service, The Professional Suite.

New Professional Suite Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

GBPUSD: Sells Off Sharply, Bear Pressure Builds On The 1.5410 Level (Special Focus)

2011-12-28T11:45:00.002-08:00

GBPUSD: With a sharp sell-off seeing the pair breaking and holding below the 1.5496 level, the risk is for further bear pressure to build up towards the 1.5410 level. On a clearance of this there, GBP will weaken further towards the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low where a break will extend further declines towards its big psycho level at 1.5000. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, GBP will have to break and hold above the 1.5779 level to halt its present bear threats and open the door for further recovery higher towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high. A breach will aim at the 1.6161 level, its Oct 31’2011 high. On the whole, GBP’s downside vulnerability remains intact following its sharp decline during Wednesday trading session.

This is an excerpt from our most popular premium service, The Professional Suite.

New Professional Suite Helps You Make Quick, Smart Trading Decisions and Trade Profitably... Guaranteed!

EURJPY: Maintains Bearish Tone, Targets The 101.02/100.75 Levels.

2011-12-28T02:57:00.003-08:00

EURJPY-Continued bearishness remains intact following the cross’s failure at the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low. This leaves the risk of an eventual return to its Dec 15’2011 low at 101.02 on the cards where a violation if seen will create scope for further declines towards the 100.75 level, representing its Oct’2011 low. A clearance of there will resume its long term downtrend towards the 100.00/99.87 levels, its July’2010 lows with a loss of there extending further downside weakness. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, on any corrective offensive, EURJPY will have to convincingly break and hold above the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low followed by its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69 to reverse its medium term bearish tone. This if it occurs will trigger further upside recovery towards its Oct 31’2011 high at 111.52 level and its Aug 29’2011 high at 111.92. All in all, EURJPY faces the possibility of returning to the 101.02 level and beyond.

GBPUSD: Recovering But Vulnerable, Bear Risk Remains Below The 1.5773/79 Levels.

2011-12-27T08:37:00.000-08:00

GBPUSD: The pair may be recovering higher but still remains vulnerable except it decisively break and hold above the 1.5773/79 levels, its Nov 30’2011/Dec 21’2011 highs. If this is seen, further bull pressure should build up towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high with a breach aiming at the 1.6161 level, its Oct 31’2011 high and possibly higher. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, the alternative scenario will be a return below the 1.5580 level. This will pave the way for further weakness towards the 1.5494 level , its Dec 20’2011 low with a loss of there targeting the 1.5410 level . Further down, below here will see GBP weaken further towards the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and even lower towards its big psycho level at 1.5000. On the whole, GBP’s downside vulnerability remains as long as it continues to hold below the 1.5773/79 levels.

USDCHF: Loses Recovery Tone, Bear Threats Set For The 0.9240 Level.

2011-12-27T02:17:00.000-08:00

USDCHF- With corrective recovery strength fading and consolidation setting in, the possibility of a return to its Dec 21’2011 low at 0.9240 is likely. This if seen will resume its declines towards the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt is likely to occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level snaps, lower level prices will shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low and next the 0.8954 level, its Nov 11’11 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, the pair will have to break and hold above the 0.9547 level to reverse its nearer term bear threats and then target the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. Above here will extend bull pressure towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high. All in all, the pair may be holding on to its medium term uptrend but remains biased to the downside on corrective weakness.

Special Focus on EURUSD Video

2011-12-26T07:28:00.000-08:00

In this video, we look at EURUSD's present price action and previews what its likely direction will be throughout the week.

EURUSD: Susceptible, Broader Outlook Remains Lower Medium Term (Special Focus)

2011-12-26T03:19:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: Though seen hesitating following its weakness off the 1.3197 level, its Dec 21’2011 low, its broader bias continues to point lower in the medium term. This suggeststhat an eventual return to the 1.2945 level, its Dec 14’2011 low could occur with a cut through that level turning focus to the 1.2874 level, its Jan 2011 low followed by the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3197 level followed by the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low to reduce its broader medium term downside pressure. This will bring further gains towards the 1.3419 level, its Nov 17’2011 low and then its 1.3547 level, its Dec 02’2011 high. Further out, the 1.4241 level, its Oct 27’2011 high and the 1.4342 level, its daily falling trendline will come in as the next upside targets. All in all, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias despite its current price hesitation.

USDJPY: Bear Threats Seen, Vulnerable Below The 78.18/27 level (Sprcial Focus)

2011-12-25T17:27:00.000-08:00

USDJPY: While USDJPY continues to attempt a recovery higher, as long as it holds below the 78.18/27 levels, we see risk to the downside. This leaves risk of a return to the 76.57 level. If this occurs, the 75.57 level, its Oct’2011 low will be targeted with a break turning attention to the 74.00 level and then the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Conversely, USDJPY will have to climb back above the 78.18/27 levels to trigger its corrective recovery. This will clear the way for a run at the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside in the long term despite its recovery attempts.

EURGBP: Maintains Medium Term Weakness, Bearishness Set To Continue.

2011-12-25T05:47:00.000-08:00

EURGBP- The cross followed through lower the past week, solidifying its bearishness and setting the stage for further declines. This will leave the cross targeting the 0.8355 level, its Feb’2011 low, a level it tested and held the past week. A convincing violation of there and the 0.8301 level will expose its nearby support at the 0.8284 level, its Jan 10’2011 low. Further down, its psycho level at 0.8200 will serve as the next support on continued weakness. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, its violated support at the 0.8485 level should reverse roles as resistance and turn the cross back down. However, if a cut through there occurs, its Dec 08’2011 high at 0.8560 will be targeted where a breach will expose the 0.8616 level with further price extension aiming at the 0.8794 level, its Sept 21’2011 high. All in all, bear pressure remains intact having triggered its medium term downtrend

USDCAD: Reverses Gains, Set To Weaken Further.

2011-12-25T00:12:00.000-08:00

USDCAD: With the pair reversing its previous week gains to close lower at the end of week, USDCAD now looks to weaken further in the new week. This will leave the pair targeting the 1.0051 level, its Dec 08’2011 low where a breather could occur but if that level snaps, further declines could build up towards its Nov 01’2011 low at 0.9970. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9890 level, its Oct 27’2011 high on further weakness. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, USDCAD will have to return above the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high to halt its present weakness and then resume its strength towards its Nov 25’2011 high at 1.0524. Further out, its Oct’2011 high at 1.0665 will serve as the next upside target where a breach will turn focus to its May 2011 high at 1.0852. All in all, the pair continues to face corrective weakness as it looks to extend further declines.

EURUSD: Broader Momentum Points Lower, Risk Seen Towards The 1.2874 Level (The Week Ahead)

2011-12-23T13:30:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: With a corrective recovery attempt failing and turning the pair down to close marginally higher at the end of the week, risk of a return to the 1.2945 level, its Dec 14’2011 low is likely in the new week. On a cut through that level, the pair should weaken further towards the 1.2874 level, its Jan 2011 low followed by the 1.2587 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3197 level followed by the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low to reduce its broader medium term downside pressure and bring further gains towards the 1.3419 level, its Nov 17’2011 low and then its 1.3547 level, its Dec 02’2011 high. Further out, the 1.4241 level, its Oct 27’2011 high and the 1.4342 level, its daily falling trendline come in as the next upside targets. All in all, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias.

USDCAD: Bear Threat Remains, Set To Weaken Further.

2011-12-23T01:22:00.000-08:00

USDCAD: The pair failed to trigger a correction on Thursday and now faces the risk of further downside weakness. Further weakness could be seen towards the 1.0183 level, its Dec 12’2011 low with loss of there extending further declines towards the 1.0053 level, its Nov 03’2011 low and the 1.0051 level. A push through here will turn attention to its Nov 01’2011 low at 0.9970 and then the 0.9890 level, its Oct 27’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, USDCAD will have to return above the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high to halt its present weakness and then resume its strength towards its Nov 25’2011 high at 1.0524. Further out, its Oct’2011 high at 1.0665 comes in as the next upside target. On a breach of here, focus will turn to its May 2011 high at 1.0852. All in all, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend but faces corrective pullbacks.

GOLD: Corrective Recovery Runs Out Of Team, Risk Points Lower.

2011-12-22T10:58:00.000-08:00

GOLD: With Gold capping its corrective recovery at the 1,641.25 level, its Dec 21'2011 high and holding below its daily 200 ema, there is a likely of the commodity returning to the 1,560.45 level, its Dec 15’2011 low. Below here if seen will expose the 1,532.90 level, its Sept’2011 low followed by its psycho level at 1,500.00.Its daily RSI is turning lower suspporting this view. Alternatively, the commodity will have to break and hold above the 1,641.25 level to restart its corrective recovery towards the 1,666.90 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1,762.50 level where a break will bring further upside towards the 1,802.75 level, its Nov’2011 high and then the 1,827.85 level, its Sept 19’2011 high. All in all, Gold continues to hold on to its medium term downside bias despite its attempt at recovering.

EURJPY: Susceptible, Struggling To Put In A Temporary Bottom.

2011-12-22T06:18:00.000-08:00

EURJPY- With EURJPY finding it tough to stage a full blown corrective recovery, we are likely to see a return to the 101.02 level. However, if this fails, a recapture of the 100.75 level, its Oct’2011 low could follow with a violation of there resuming its long term downtrend towards the 100.00/99.87 levels, its July’2010 lows. Below here will pave the way for a move further lower towards the 98.00 level. On the other hand, if further corrective offensive is triggered, EURJPY will have to convincingly break and hold above the 102.47 level to clear the way for more strength towards the 104.39 level. Further out, resistance lies at its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69 and ultimately its Oct 31’2011 high at 111.52 level. All in all, EURJPY faces the possibility of weakening further through the 100.75 level if its present recovery attempts fails.

GBPUSD: Vulnerable, Loses Steam Ahead Of The 1.5779 Level.

2011-12-22T05:04:00.001-08:00

GBPUSD: Having failed to sustain its intra day rally on Wednesday, GBP gave back almost all of that gain to close marginally higher and print a shooting start candle pattern. This development leaves the risk of a reversal lower possibly towards the 1.5496 level, its Dec 20’2011 low. Below here if seen will call for a run at the 1.5410 level with a breach turning focus to the 1.5270 level, its Oct 06’2011 low. Further down, support lies at its psycho level at 1.5000. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.5779 level to prevent a resumption of its medium term weakness. This will trigger further upside towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high and then the 1.6161 level, its Oct 31’2011 high. On the whole, GBP continues to face corrective recovery risk but vulnerable.

EURGBP: Pressured To The Downside, Sees Further Bearish Momentum.

2011-12-21T09:35:00.000-08:00

EURGBP- Further sell off saw the cross breaking the 0.8355/38 levels and testing a low of 0.8301 level during Wednesday trading session today. This development sees continued hold below the 0.8355/38 level creating further bearishness towards the 0.8284 level, its Jan 10’2011 low. Further down, its psycho level at 0.8200 will serve as the next support on additional declines. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, its broken support at the 0.8355/38 levels and the 0.8485 level should reverse roles as resistance and turn the cross back down. However, if these levels fail to hold, its Dec 08’2011 high at 0.8560 could be targeted where a breach will expose the 0.8616 level and then the 0.8794 level, its Sept 21’2011 high. All in all, bear pressure remains intact with risk of further weakness towards the 0.8284 level growing.

AUDUSD: Rallies, Corrective Recovery Set To Continue.

2011-12-20T19:35:00.000-08:00

AUDUSD: With a sharp rally seeing AUDUSD triggering a full blown corrective recovery on Tuesday, we expect a continuation of that move in today’s trading session. This was seen building up as at the time of this analysis and could push the pair further higher towards the 1.0160 level. A cut through here if seen will expose its 200 daily ema currently located at 1.0217. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.0378 level followed by the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high followed by the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be a return to the 0.9861 level with a loss of there calling for further decline towards the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. A breach of here will turn focus to its Nov’2011 low at 0.9663 level and possibly lower towards the 0.9600 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on correction.

EURUSD: Bulls Take Control, Further Corrective Recovery Risk Builds Up.

2011-12-20T18:53:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: The pair has triggered a corrective recovery but as long as that happens below the 1.3212 and 1.3144 levels, risk remains lower in the medium term. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 1.2945 level on the cards with a loss of there targeting the 1.2874 level, its Jan 2011 low. Further down, support comes in at the 1.2587 level. Alternatively, EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low and the 1.3144 level to reduce its broader downside pressure and bring gains towards the 1.3419 level, its Nov 17’2011 low and then its 1.3547 level, its Dec 02’2011 high. Further out, the 1.4241 level, its Oct 27’2011 high and the 1.4342 level, its daily falling trendline come in as the next upside targets. All in all, though recovering, its medium term bias remains lower.

USDJPY: Vulnerable, Long Term Risk Points To The Downside.

2011-12-20T13:17:00.000-08:00

USDJPY: Vulnerable, Long Term Risk Points To The Downside.

USDJPY: While USDJPY continues to hold below the 78.18 level, risk of a return to the 76.57 level remains a possibility. If this occurs, the 75.57 level, its Oct’2011 low will be targeted with a break turning attention to the 74.00 level and then the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, USDJPY will have to climb back above the 78.18 level to trigger its corrective recovery. This will clear the way for a run at the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside in the long term despite its recovery attempts.

GBPJPY: Recovers, Eyes The 122.66 Level.

2011-12-20T04:10:00.000-08:00

GBPJPY – While GBPJPY may be on its second day of upside recovery, it must break and hold above the 122.66 level to create scope for further upside gains. In such a case, the 123.14 level, its Nov 15’2011 high will be targeted with a loss of there aiming at the 127.30/21 levels. Further out, resistance lies at the 128.85 level, its Aug 08’2011 high and subsequently, the 130.78 level, its Aug 04’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, a return below the 120.27 level, its Dec 14’2011 low will call for further declines towards Nov 28’2011 low at 119.92 level. A violation of there will call for further declines towards the 119.35 level. Below here will open the door for a run at the 116.78 level and subsequently, the 115.00 level, its psycho level and then the 114.00 level. All in all, the cross is biased to the downside in the short term but faces bear risk in the immediate term.

EURGBP: Weakens, Attention Shifts To The 0.8284 Level (Daily Technical Strategist)

2011-12-20T00:33:00.000-08:00

EURGBP- Having sold off through the 0.8373 level on continued bearish momentum during early morning trading today, the immediate risk is for EURGBP to convincingly break the 0.8355 level, its Feb’2011 low. This development if seen will pave the way for more weakness towards the 0.8284 level, its Jan 10’2011 low. Further down, its psycho level at 0.8200 will serve as the next support on further declines. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, its broken support at the 0.8485 level should reverse roles as resistance and turn the cross back down. However, if this fails to happen, its Dec 08’2011 high at 0.8560 will be targeted where a breach will expose the 0.8616 level with scope for further price extension likely towards the 0.8794 level, its Sept 21’2011 high. All in all, bear pressure remains intact with risk of further weakness towards the 0.8284 level growing.

EURGBP: Broadly Biased To The Downside, Attention Shifts To 0.8355/0.8284

2011-12-19T18:20:00.001-08:00

EURGBP- With EURGBP breaking and holding below its key support at the 0.8485 level, its Nov’2011 low the past week and maintaining its overall medium term weakness, further bearish momentum is expected. In such a case, the 0.8355 level, its Feb’2011 low will be targeted where a decisive violation will call for further weakness towards the 0.8284 level, its Jan 10’2011 low. Further down, its psycho level at 0.8200 will serve as the next support on continued weakness. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, on any recovery higher, its broken support at the 0.8485 level should reverse roles as resistance and turn the cross back down. However, if a cut through there occurs, its Dec 08’2011 high at 0.8560 will be targeted where a breach will expose the 0.8616 level with further price extension aiming at the 0.8794 level, its Sept 21’2011 high. All in all, bear pressure remains intact having triggered its medium term downtrend.